Inside Linebackers
ILB Karlos Dansby: 3 years, $18 million, 60% guaranteed
-Dansby is probably the most talented ILB that was a free agent this year, but at 32 his market is going to be softer than expected. With D. Jackson averaging $5.5 million a year, Dansby should top that and get a higher guarantee %. Likely Dansby will look to have a 4th year in the deal, but probably most teams will hold firm at 3. The higher guarantee helps keep a team from having to tack on a 4th year.
ILB Wesley Woodyard: 5 years $25 million, 40% guaranteed
-Before the start of last year, I would have said that Woodyard would have been the highest valued ILB this year, but a down year collapsed his market some. I think he represents a good value, but some caution is needed on how they structure this. Ideally, the first 2 or 3 years would contain almost all of the guaranteed money.
ILB Jameel McClain: 3 years $10.5 million, 35% guaranteed
-McClain should come at a reasonable rate even if the market gets crazy as it has in the past. He’s a good stopgap type of option, and that is how most teams will view him. Again he’s another guy you want to be able to get out early if need be, so ideally it should only be a moderate cap hit after one year, and a minor one after year two.
ILB Joe Mays: 2 years $6 million, 40% guaranteed
-Mays will probably be looking at a 2-3 year deal worth between $2.5-3.5 million per year. He’s seen more of a run defender who will get subbed out on a lot of passing downs so his market shouldn’t be huge. Still, he’s under 30 and has been solid throughout most of his career. Likely another case where a player can be easily cut in year 2.
ILB Jon Beason: 3 years $16.5 million, 35% guaranteed
-Beason’s length, overall value, and guarantee will all be limited by his injury history. Still, I see him getting over $5 million average on a shorter deal. It will likely be structured with most of the guaranteed money in year one, leaving just a moderate cap hit if you need to cut him next season.
My Take
Just how important free agency in this position is going to be is hard to gauge at this point with the contract status of Perry Riley being unknown. It’s highly possible that the Redskins will need two linebackers if Riley doesn’t re-sign. Mays would be more of a special teams player (which is a massive need for this team), Beason has some injury concerns but played well for the NY Giants last year after being traded from Carolina. McClain could serve as a stop-gap for a season until the Redskins could perhaps improve the position again next season, Woodyard has potential even though he took somewhat of a step back last year. While I like Dansby a lot and think he would fit he may, in fact, want more money than Washington is willing to offer for a player of his age.
Defensive Tackle
DT Linval Joseph: 5 years $35 million, 50 percent guaranteed
-Joseph is going to get paid, originally I thought he’d be $6 million a year, but with the way, the cap went up and the projections going forward, I think he’s at the $7 million average. One of his biggest advantages is there isn’t a single team he wouldn’t fit with. Also, the DT market is pretty soft overall.
My Take
I’m only listing one player for a reason, Joseph is the only defensive tackle that jumps out at me on the free agency list this year. He has been playing in a 4-3 defense in NY but is reportedly open to a switch to the 3-4 and it should be noted that Joseph was Barry Cofield’s replacement when he left NY just a few seasons back. I believe he, like Cofield, can play both nose tackle and end.
Wide Receiver
WR Hakeem Nicks: Either 1 year $6.5 million, 50% guaranteed, or 4 years $24 million 45% guaranteed –
-Nicks is a tough free agent case. He definitely hasn’t been as productive these past two seasons, but he’s not been horrible. 2010 and 2011 he was more productive than Jeremy Maclin has ever been, and he’s not coming off an ACL like Maclin, yet Maclin just got $5.5 million with $3.5 million guaranteed. Nicks probably believes he’s a number 1 and wants to do the one year route in the hopes of a better 2015 market, but he could also see the advantages of a 3-4 year moderate deal.
WR Julian Edelman: 5 years $35 million, 40% guaranteed
-Last year slot receivers got $6 million per year average, this year it should go up, and Edelman is a guy likely to get that raise. He might only have one year of top production, but he brings a lot to the table overall including his punt return ability and leadership.
WR James Jones: 4 years $18 million, 40% guaranteed
-Riley Cooper just signed for a $5 million a year average, and while Jones has obviously a longer track record, he’ll be 30 next year and has never been truly great. While he led the NFL with 14 TD’s in 2012, he’s not a red zone threat so teams won’t overpay for that skill. This will likely be structured with most of the guaranteed money in the first two years so he can be cut afterward if needed.
WR Dexter McCluster: 4 years $14 million, 45% guaranteed
-McCluster is going to be an interesting case because he may push for a shorter 2-3 year deal, in an effort to hit FA before he’s 30 again, and hopefully more established as a weapon. For a 2nd tier slot receiver/return man, this is a pretty good deal.
WR Kenny Britt: 1 year $5 million, 25% guaranteed or a two year $11 million deal, 30% guaranteed
-This will be another interesting case. Britt will want to do a 1-year deal to establish his market for 2015, but teams will likely try to push for two years (with most of the guaranteed money in year 1) in a hope to get some extra value for taking a chance on him.
WR Jerome Simpson: 3 years $7 million, 30% guarantee
-Simpson has signed for $2 million and $2.1 million the last two years, I think with a productive yeah he’ll get a multi-year deal, and a team will want to go that route to lock in his cost. Given the good year and the Cap going up, it’s likely Simpson would have been looking at a bigger deal than this, but he had a DUI arrest last year and has a history so he could have a suspension looming. Likely teams will know what the situation is. It will affect his market, in general, some even if he’s not suspended since the threat is there with another incident, but if he’s suspended the contract could be even lower.
My Take
Two years ago this wouldn’t even have been a discussion as I would have been foaming at the mouth at the thought of having Hakeem Nicks lining up on the other side of Pierre Garcon. Fast-forward two years and Nicks has question marks all over him but is also coming from an organization that is cash-strapped for cap dollars. Britt’s situation could be really interesting as just a couple of years ago he to was a growing star, now, question marks as well. McCluster and Simpson would probably be the best two deals on this list, McCluster would give the Redskins another potential weapon they so desperately need. James Jones and Edlemen could both be really good slot receivers, but Edlemen will likely want way too much money coming off the year he had last season, and Jones is aging.
Playmaker/Kick Returner/Punt Returner/Halfback
HB Darren Sproles: 3 years $9 million, 45% guaranteed
-The RB market is collapsing and will probably be the one thing that doesn’t see a significant increase given the increased cap this year and going forward.
My Take
While Alfred Morris is the work-horse back that fuels everything in the Redskins offense, the truth is the team needs a pass-catching back in the worst kind of way, and Sproles is one of the tops in the league at just that. Sproles is also a very good returner and could offer a spark to the Redskins in that category as well. As long as the money is right, I’m on board 100% with a move that includes giving Robert Griffin III an accomplished pass-catching scat-back to work with.
Here is a complete list of this year’s free agents.
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Albert Haynesworth, Anthony Collins, Barry Cofield, Brandon Meriweather, Chris Clemons, Darren Sproles, Dexter McCluster, Donte Whitner, Jameel McClain, James Jones, Jarius Byrd, Jerome Simpson, Joe Mays, Jon Beason, Josh Morgan, Julian Edleman, Karlos Dansby, Kenny Britt, Linval Joseph, Mike Mitchell, Pierre Garçon, Redskins Free Agency, Rodger Saffold, T.J. Ward, Washington Redskins, Wesley Woodyard
